Special topic: April non-agricultural far lower than expected, February and March non-agricultural was revised down 2Xhamsterpoker.20,000 people
Swap contracts resume to cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice for the Federal Reserve in 2024XhamsterpokerThe expectation of. Traders advanced their expectations of the Fed's first rate cut from November to September.
Huitong Financial App News-US job growth slowed more than expected in April, while wage growth also cooled. Non-farm payrolls rose by 175000 last month, according to an employment report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. The March data was revised upwards to show an increase of 315000 jobs instead of the 303000 previously reported.
The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9%, remaining below 4% for the 27th month in a row. Wages rose 3.9% in April from a year earlier, down from 4.1% in march. 3.0% Mo 3.5% year-on-year wage increase is considered to be in line with the Fed's 2% inflation target. The slowdown in employment is likely to add to fears that the economy quickly lost momentum in the second quarter. Financial markets continue to expect the Fed to start its easing cycle in September.
The number of new non-farm payrolls was revised down from 270000 to 236000 in February and from 303000 to 315000 in March. After these revisions, the number of new jobs added in February and March was 22000 lower than that before the revision.
According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.1% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 8.9%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged by August is 70.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 27.6%, and the probability of a cumulative cut of 50 basis points is 2.0%.
Swap contracts restore expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice in 2024. Traders advanced their expectations of the Fed's first rate cut from November to September.
Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened as the April non-farm payrolls report fell short of expectations. Treasury yields began to fall before the data were released, and the decline deepened after the data. The current yield on 10-year Treasuries is 4.469%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note is 4.743%. Spot gold soared by $20.
Institutional viewpoint
Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, said the payrolls data "underscored Powell's confidence that monetary policy is restrictive and that labour supply has been the main driver of strong non-farm payrolls growth in recent months." The slowdown in employment and wage growth means a "soft landing", she said. "assuming CPI also shows a slowdown, the August rate cut may return to the market narrative." For now, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 10 basis points at its August meeting, up from 7 basis points before the report. Therefore, it is clear that more data is needed to show the economic slowdown, especially the upcoming inflation data.
Richard Flynn, general manager of Schwab Financial, said the latest non-farm payrolls report showed that demand in the labour market was slowing. In recent months, it has become clear that the Fed is happy to move slowly in the rate cut cycle and does not want the economy to be unexpectedly weak, and the report we see today could lead to a shift in that approach. The collapse of the labour market could prompt the Fed to shift from a ramble to a sprint.
'The market should not get carried away, 'said Ali Jaffery, an analyst at Imperial Commercial Bank of Canada. Fed policymakers want more than just a month of good data to feel more at ease about inflationary pressures in the job market. "overall, the labour market is still strong and they need to see more evidence that the economy is slowing or employment has unexpectedly fallen sharply before they worry about their employment tasks after such strong job growth." In the end, the Fed will sit tight until they have a clear understanding of inflation.
Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said this is a set of non-farm data that is very market-friendly, at least in the short term. We are at a time when bad news may be good news. The economic cooling they portray is exactly what bond investors want to see, and the reaction of the stock market suggests that the market immediately grasped it. In the long run, we can debate whether this marks the beginning of economic deterioration, but it will spoil the market carnival this morning.
With only six months to go before the US presidential election, the labour market appears to be turning, according to analyst Enda Curran. To be sure, the overall employment data is still strong and people are looking for work, but if the non-farm payrolls data is a lagging indicator, you have to ask what the November data will look like.