Special topic: Buffett's 2024 shareholders' meeting hit
The Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting focused on by global investors was held in the small city of Omaha, Nebraska. Sina Finance spoke to Chen Kaifeng, chief economist of Huisheng Financial Co., at the meeting.
Speaking of artificial intelligence, he believes that at present, artificial intelligence should be in full bloom in the United States, there are many companies that can be invested, and investment in US stocks is "the sky is the limit."
"the three largest pieces in artificial intelligence are hardware, chips, and software, and the third is the so-called data and computing power. Obviously, these three blocks are now very ahead of the United States," Chen Kaifeng believes. From this point of view, the economic driving force of the United States in the next step is very huge, and the stock market will certainly benefit, which is different from the logic of investing in US stocks two or three years ago.
He introduced the current relatively promising industry opportunities: one is medical and health care, including medical services, including biology, that is, stem cells, cancer treatment, and so on; the other is financial technology, global payment; there is also health food, including organic food, organic agriculture, and so on; and electric cars, electric trucks.
Guest Golden sentence:
At present, artificial intelligence should be in full bloom in the United States, and there are many companies that can be invested in.
Solar energy, wind energy, cars including new energy sources, and the entire energy storage system, I believe this is a very good opportunity. And this is not a short-term opportunity, it is an investment opportunity for five to ten years, decades.
The next biggest opportunity for Chinese companies is to push capacity to other countries, rather than domestically in China.
The following is a transcript of the interview with Chen Kaifeng.
Sina Finance: professor Chen, thank you very much for your exclusive interview with Sina Finance. For this year's shareholders' meeting, what areas do you pay more attention to?
Chen Kaifeng: I have paid a lot of attention. One, of course, is to see what Buffett plans to do next. Recently, he has lowered Apple's position a little bit, including the cash he has on hand, and his reserves have reached a new high, including his next investment. Of course, he has a lot of investments now. He is his two successors, Ted and Todd. I would like to hear his next plan. In addition, he talked a lot about artificial intelligence last year and now. The topic of artificial intelligence has been very hot since last year. He also told you a year in advance. I want to hear his views on the next step of artificial intelligence.
Of course, a large part of it is Japan. Three years ago, he laid out Japan and told people all over the world that he had already earned several times, so what are his plans for Japan next? It seems to me that he increased his position in Japan in January. So I'd like to see what he thinks of Japan next. In all aspects, of course, there are a lot of macro people who want to hear him talk.
Sina Finance: investing in Open Al is one of the most successful investment decisions made by Microsoft in recent years. In your exclusive interview with Sina Finance last year, you encouraged everyone to invest in Microsoft, which is very prescient. Will you continue to advise people to invest in Microsoft now? Or what other companies in the field of artificial intelligence do you recommend?
Chen Kaifeng: of course there are a lot of things about Open Al. Of course, a lot of things have happened since last year, including the dismissal of his CEO and then coming back, but one thing is obvious in the whole process, that is, Microsoft CEO handled this matter very appropriately. From the beginning to the end, he said that I would support Open Al, but he would not interfere. In fact, Microsoft has benefited a lot from it, but it also makes people feel that he has left independence to Open Al.
So from all aspects, I think Microsoft will definitely benefit from artificial intelligence, but in fact, not only Microsoft, but Apple itself also has a lot of artificial intelligence technology under development, including its voice assistant, ah, and so on. Including Tesla and so on, artificial intelligence should be in full bloom in the United States at present, and there are many companies that can invest in it. Of course, as I mentioned at the beginning, Aerial, a little girl who has played table tennis with Buffett for 10 years since the age of 9, is also working in an artificial intelligence startup. So, I believe there are many opportunities in this field.
Sina Finance: the development of artificial intelligence is inseparable from the support of its power of calculation. For example, the stock of chip company Nvidia has grown several times rapidly in the past year. Do you think Nvidia's stock is suitable for long-term holding?
Chen Kaifeng: Nvidia's stock is of course the leader. The stock of the leading industry of artificial intelligence is very worth holding, but not only the power itself, but also energy, and now because artificial intelligence consumes too much energy, the United States has begun to lack energy. Nvidia's chip is high energy consumption. It is actually Buffett that provides energy. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Energy Company is one of the largest energy companies in the United States, and now Texas and other companies are starting to lose power. In fact, it is beneficial to them.
Sina Finance: so Buffett seemed unsure about the development of artificial intelligence at last year's shareholders' meeting, but he indirectly made a lot of money through artificial intelligence. For example, through his investment in energy. When it comes to energy, now the new energy, environmental protection energy is a very hot investment topic, what kind of investment views do you have on this aspect?
Chen Kaifeng: now the whole new energy market, I think it is a major trend, there is no doubt. Regardless of solar energy, wind energy, cars including new energy sources, and the entire energy storage system, I believe this is a very good opportunity. And this is not a short-term opportunity, it is an investment opportunity for five to ten years, decades. Not only do we invest, but Buffett also invests. Berkshire invests tens of billions of dollars in new energy every year.
Sina Finance: now the development of the new energy electric vehicle industry seems to be very rapid, the competition is very fierce, it feels that his moat does not seem to be that high, so is it right to say that he is not quite in line with Buffett's value investment concept?
陈凯丰：我觉得是这样，电动车当然目前来看大家看的最多的就是轿年，大家日常开的，但其实电动车不光是这种，还有很多其他的，比如说现在特别好的一个叫农业机械，巴菲特他们最大股东之一，比尔盖茨他也是个大股东，他开发的大规模的综合农业收割机等等。还有卫星导航，人工智能，也是用电，整个是用电驱动的，还有包括像比如说像亚马逊这种现在快递用车，电动卡车。所以现在这个电气化趋势是有很多其他的远远超过了大家想象的一般的这种小轿车的电动车概念，其实有很多新的在推出来。
新浪财经：提到Open Al，它最近推出的文字转视频的模型Sora也非常火，Sora这个名字其实是源于日文的这个空，天空的空。说到天空就让我想到了陈教授最近在新浪微博上发表的对美国股市发展前景的评价：天空才是极限。您可以阐述一下这句话的含义吗？
陈凯丰：确实，因为我们现在在全世界做投资，去很多国家，能感觉到现在人工智能的发展确实势不可挡，那人工智能里面最大的三块，一个是硬件，就是芯片，一个是软件，就是人工智能大数据模型，第三个就是所谓的数据和算力。那很明显这三块里面现在美国都是非常领先，从这点来看的话，对于美国下一步的经济驱动力是非常巨大的，那股市肯定会受益，和大概两三年前的投资美股逻辑就不一样了。所以我说现在天空才是极限的原因就是目前这个大型的科技股，受益于人工智能的三部分，软件、硬件、数据都是有很大的帮助。
新浪财经：您刚刚也提到了，就是巴菲特减持苹果的股票，您觉得他这个投资决策在长期和短期之内对伯克希尔的业务有什么样的影响？
陈凯丰：好的，首先苹果这几年说实话业绩一般，它的收入下降了，但利润还是不错，它的利润很好，但是成长乏力。而且苹果之前想做自己的汽车，电动车，现在是放弃了。苹果他做的新的像vision Pro，三维的AR、VR，那个还是非常好的。但是似乎给人感觉苹果本身再想大规模的发展可能比较有限，但是，苹果大规模搞回购，所以，如果idnplaysicbo你是苹果股东，你持有不动的话，你的股份占比是不断上升的。所以对于巴菲特来说，我觉得卖出一些苹果股份是一个应该做的事情吧，他这个股份占比越来越高，应该是卖出一部分去做一些别的。
新浪财经：您刚刚提到了这个股票的回购，最近我也关注一个股票，就是Meta，它的股票也是上涨得非常快，有个很大的原因感觉就是它也开始股票回购，开始发股息了。您觉得他的这一举措会吸引非常喜欢现金流的巴菲特对他进行投资吗？
陈凯丰：这一点很难说，因为Meta它确实是一个纯软件或者偏软件的公司，巴菲特的话我觉得他还是比较喜欢硬件的公司，特别是消费品相关的，苹果这种消费品，他特别喜欢。像Meta这种社交网络可能是不属于他能力圈范围之内或者最关注的。
新浪财经：嗯，对，股神巴菲特好像不太关注科技股之类的，比如说他就不认为苹果是属于科技股，他认为是属于消费股。说到消费品，比如说现在的品牌出海，在全球化的经济环境之中，品牌出海好像是一个必然的趋势，像Mata，它股票非常好，另外一个很大的原因就是得益于跨境电商，像拼多多Temu这些非常巨额的广告营收。您觉得对于中国品牌出海的投资几率是在哪里？
陈凯丰：中国现在有一个优势，就是制造业的成本优势，而且可以说它的生产过程啊已经非常优化了。所以，中国这点是有优势，但劣势就是关税，各国都在对中国增加关税，金融壁垒越来越高。
所以，将来中国品牌出口，我觉得只能做的就是本地化制造，就是学习当年的日本，比如，中国要向美国出口产品，就要在美国建厂，要向德国出口产品的话，就要在德国建厂，如果现在往中东出口的话，以后就要在阿联酋，在沙特建厂。
这一点目前是大趋势，就是you have to sell and make local，这一点我认为也是中国企业下一步最大的机会，把产能推到其他国家去，而不是在中国国内。现在国内这个词叫内卷是吧？他要把产能要放到其他国家去，可以说，这就是国际化的一条必经之路吧。
新浪财经：听起来就是说这个企业出海，本地化也是非常重要的。就是现在在这种美联储迟迟没有加息，在这种非常高的利率，非常高的通货膨胀，经济增长非常乏力的情况下，您看到的投资机遇有哪些？比如说您比较看好的一些行业之类的？
陈凯丰：我给你讲讲我们现在做的一些行业，都是因为我们相对比较看好才做的嘛。一个就是医疗健康，医疗健康版块里面，包括医疗服务，包括生物科，就是干细胞，癌症治疗等等；另外一个，就是金融科技，全球支付，这也是我们投资的；还有一个是健康食品，健康食品就包括有机食品、有机农业等等；还有就是电动车，电动卡车。这些我认为都是很有机会的行业，可以说是科技高速增长，颠覆现有的行业的机会，是我们比较喜欢的。
新浪财经：那我们现在回归到巴菲特，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔公司，他在今年1月份的时候就收购了美国最大的旅行服务中心的运营商。您对这一决策有怎样的看法？
陈凯丰：今天我也看到了，今天这个会场里面就有新搭的pilot嘛，是吧。当然虽然收购了，但是还是有些问题，他现在有一个法律诉讼问题，就等于是卖家在起诉，想再多拿些钱。我觉得这个实际上就是比较典型的，巴菲特特别喜欢的高护城河的公司嘛，他相当于是给那卡车司机服务。同时，在全美各个地方的点，有些零售等等，这些都是比较难去重新复制的，进入壁垒很高，如果他把管理做好一点，营收、利润和现金流都会提高的。
Sina Finance: Thank you very much to Professor Chen for his wonderful sharing. Thank you once again for accepting an exclusive interview with Sina Finance. I hope to see Professor Chen again at tomorrow's shareholders 'meeting and at the Sino-US investor reception hosted by Sina Finance tomorrow evening. Thank you.
(Sina Financial's Special Representative in the United States, Amanda Guo Yijie, Monica Bai Xue, sent from Omaha, USA)